Time to Get Serious
Yesterday, Israel committed 10,000 troops to a full scale invasion of southern Lebanon, a clear attempt to seize and establish a buffer against short range missile attacks by Hezbollah into northern Israel (for the moment, it appears that Hezbollah's long range missiles have either been expended -- or deleted from inventory by Israeli air). This initial wave is backed by thousands of mobilizing troops, part of the 30,000 reservists called to active duty over the weekend. The seizure of this buffer zone is a sign that, cease fire cometh or cometh not, Israel has no intention of returning the area to Lebanese control at any time in the near future. Does Israel plan to occupy all of Lebanon? Keeping in mind that Israel had over 100,000 troops in the field during its 1982 conquest of that country (followed by 18 years of a miserable occupation), it seems doubtful.
Raids deeper into Lebanon are another matter, as yesterday's commando assault against a hospital in the city of Baalbek, some 80 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border, attests. From the news that has dribbled out of the region, this appears to have been a model assault of helioborne infantry supported by the Israeli air force. The raid, meant to capture key Hezbollah leaders, seems to have snagged several lesser members before the Israelis withdrew without losing any troopers.
Serious business, perhaps the call-up of 30,000 troops more than the invasion of Lebanon. This would not be the first time in history that a mobilization of one nation led to a widening of the war to include other countries. In fact, the Israeli cabinet immediately contacted Syria once the decision had been made to institute the call up, reassuring the strongest supporters of Hezbollah that the mobilization was against Hezbollah and not Syria. The implied message, of course, was: Not this time.
Secretary Rice observed yesterday that a ceasefire now seemed possible within days, instead of weeks. I think she is rather optimistic, especially after perusing the excellent timeline of this conflict in today's Aljazeera. That timeline captures the key variable in all of this: the number of dead, civilian and military alike. --W. Dudley for M. Palmer
Raids deeper into Lebanon are another matter, as yesterday's commando assault against a hospital in the city of Baalbek, some 80 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border, attests. From the news that has dribbled out of the region, this appears to have been a model assault of helioborne infantry supported by the Israeli air force. The raid, meant to capture key Hezbollah leaders, seems to have snagged several lesser members before the Israelis withdrew without losing any troopers.
Serious business, perhaps the call-up of 30,000 troops more than the invasion of Lebanon. This would not be the first time in history that a mobilization of one nation led to a widening of the war to include other countries. In fact, the Israeli cabinet immediately contacted Syria once the decision had been made to institute the call up, reassuring the strongest supporters of Hezbollah that the mobilization was against Hezbollah and not Syria. The implied message, of course, was: Not this time.
Secretary Rice observed yesterday that a ceasefire now seemed possible within days, instead of weeks. I think she is rather optimistic, especially after perusing the excellent timeline of this conflict in today's Aljazeera. That timeline captures the key variable in all of this: the number of dead, civilian and military alike. --W. Dudley for M. Palmer
