Who Won? Who Lost?
The press is full of reports about the winners and losers of the latest Lebanon crisis. Unfortunately, it is too early to say who won or lost.
There is no doubt that, at the moment, Hezbollah has gained from the crisis. Israel and the IDF have not. But that could change, depending on how the implementation of UNSC 1701 plays out over the next few months.
The latest reports from the region indicate that neither the Lebanese army nor a beefed up UNIFIL intend to disarm Hezbollah. Essentially, the Lebanese and UN forces are publicly announcing that they have no intention of insisting that Lebanon meet the requirements of UNSC 1701. If that remains true, there is no doubt that Hezbollah will have won (and along with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran), and Israel (and along with it the United States and the United Nations) will have lost. If the UN does not implement the resolution, and insure that the Lebanese government holds a monopoly on armed force in Lebanon, or at least in the south, then the expanded, 15,000-person strong UNIFIL will be as useless as the force already in place. In fact, given its increased size and visibility, it runs the risk of turning the UN into a joke (in the minds of even more people).
If Israeli demands and United States pressure can force the full implementation of 1701, even if only in southern Lebanon, then the Israelis will have “won.” UNIFIL and the Lebanese army would, in that case, serve as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah, which is what the Israelis want and deserve.
If I had to place a bet, I would stake my money, unfortunately, on the former scenario. There is no way that Hezbollah is going to disarm itself, certainly not after its latest showing. I think it is politically impossible for the Lebanese army to forcibly disarm Hezbollah. And, the UN lacks the nerve to do the job itself.
This is bad news for everyone, except Hezbollah. An armed Hezbollah, re-armed by Iran and Syria, will move back into the south and resume its former position, right under the eyes of UNIFIL, once the Israelis withdraw. Sooner or later, rockets will rain on northern Israel. But this time Hezbollah will have 15,000 UN troops and the Lebanese army serving as veritable human shields. The failure of “UNIFIL on Steroids” to do anything to prevent Hezbollah attacks will make the reality of the United Nations even more evident than it already is. The Israeli and Lebanese people will ultimately pay the price for the failure of the UN to act with determination.
I have no faith in the self-restraint of Hezbollah. After all, if the organization did restrain itself vis-à-vis the Israelis, it would have little reason for existing. I have no faith in the UN or UNIFIL. Thus, next round the Israelis will have three options when they face renewed Hezbollah raids and rocket attacks. Option 1: send the IDF into southern Lebanon and try to smash Hezbollah in a theater populated not only by civilians, but also by 15,000 UNIFIL Blue Helmets and the Lebanese army. This would not be an easy military task and is fraught with danger. Option 2: rely on air power to reach over UNIFIL and bomb deeper into Lebanon. The problem is that we now know that Hezbollah does not care if the Lebanese infrastructure is destroyed or thousands of civilians killed, because such developments serve to strengthen Hezbollah within Lebanon. Option 3: ignore the puppet and go after the puppeteer. UNIFIL bars the road to Beirut, but not to Damascus.
There is no doubt that, at the moment, Hezbollah has gained from the crisis. Israel and the IDF have not. But that could change, depending on how the implementation of UNSC 1701 plays out over the next few months.
The latest reports from the region indicate that neither the Lebanese army nor a beefed up UNIFIL intend to disarm Hezbollah. Essentially, the Lebanese and UN forces are publicly announcing that they have no intention of insisting that Lebanon meet the requirements of UNSC 1701. If that remains true, there is no doubt that Hezbollah will have won (and along with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran), and Israel (and along with it the United States and the United Nations) will have lost. If the UN does not implement the resolution, and insure that the Lebanese government holds a monopoly on armed force in Lebanon, or at least in the south, then the expanded, 15,000-person strong UNIFIL will be as useless as the force already in place. In fact, given its increased size and visibility, it runs the risk of turning the UN into a joke (in the minds of even more people).
If Israeli demands and United States pressure can force the full implementation of 1701, even if only in southern Lebanon, then the Israelis will have “won.” UNIFIL and the Lebanese army would, in that case, serve as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah, which is what the Israelis want and deserve.
If I had to place a bet, I would stake my money, unfortunately, on the former scenario. There is no way that Hezbollah is going to disarm itself, certainly not after its latest showing. I think it is politically impossible for the Lebanese army to forcibly disarm Hezbollah. And, the UN lacks the nerve to do the job itself.
This is bad news for everyone, except Hezbollah. An armed Hezbollah, re-armed by Iran and Syria, will move back into the south and resume its former position, right under the eyes of UNIFIL, once the Israelis withdraw. Sooner or later, rockets will rain on northern Israel. But this time Hezbollah will have 15,000 UN troops and the Lebanese army serving as veritable human shields. The failure of “UNIFIL on Steroids” to do anything to prevent Hezbollah attacks will make the reality of the United Nations even more evident than it already is. The Israeli and Lebanese people will ultimately pay the price for the failure of the UN to act with determination.
I have no faith in the self-restraint of Hezbollah. After all, if the organization did restrain itself vis-à-vis the Israelis, it would have little reason for existing. I have no faith in the UN or UNIFIL. Thus, next round the Israelis will have three options when they face renewed Hezbollah raids and rocket attacks. Option 1: send the IDF into southern Lebanon and try to smash Hezbollah in a theater populated not only by civilians, but also by 15,000 UNIFIL Blue Helmets and the Lebanese army. This would not be an easy military task and is fraught with danger. Option 2: rely on air power to reach over UNIFIL and bomb deeper into Lebanon. The problem is that we now know that Hezbollah does not care if the Lebanese infrastructure is destroyed or thousands of civilians killed, because such developments serve to strengthen Hezbollah within Lebanon. Option 3: ignore the puppet and go after the puppeteer. UNIFIL bars the road to Beirut, but not to Damascus.
