Saturday, July 22, 2006

Saved Sect Site Goes Down

As of today, the Saved Sect site (here’s the hyperlink, but it’s quite dead) has joined that of al-Ghurabaa’ and gone to wherever “martyred” Islamist websites go. (Maybe there’s a virtual paradise waiting for them where they are browsed all day by virgins.) Now comes the difficult part: trying to locate the new site that will replace the old. Fortunately, the Blair government gave me time to copy off several of their better articles for future discussions, and comparisons with material on the new site when it appears.

I understand why these sites need to go down, especially after the Saved Sect site posted an article warning that blood would flow in the streets of London. (See my earlier post here.) Nevertheless, the material on these sites is so useful when I’m teaching students about jihadism. I’ll miss both sites.

Gitmo East?

Ynet is reporting that Israel is busily constructing a prison to hold Hezbollah members and other detainees rounded up in the course of the IDF’s “incursions” into southern Lebanon. According to the story, Israel’s chief military rabbinate provided special permission for work to continue through the Sabbath. One commentator has already tagged the facility, located near Rosh Pinah, north of the Sea of Galilee, as “Gitmo East.”

[Thanks to Ben Saidel]

German Chancellor Snubs Ahmadinejad

The Islamic Republic News Agency website contains a short notice on the headlines from German newspapers for the 21st of July. All the headlines mention the letter written by Iranian President Ahmadinejad to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. What the IRNA story does not state, is that the letter did not play very well.

German official spokesperson Ulrich Wilhelm informed Der Spiegel that the ten-page letter contained "many claims that are not acceptable to us, in particular about Israel, the state of Israel's right to exist and the Holocaust." Chancellor Merkel, Wilhelm reports, has no intention of replying: "The German government does not have the intention of entering into correspondence with the Iranian president." The Germans, unfortunately, do not plan to release a copy of the letter.

New Front in War on Terror: Somali Islamists Declare Jihad against Ethiopia

Ethiopian Forces Advance on Second Somali Town

By VOA News
22 July 2006


 

Ethiopian troops Saturday entered a second town in Somalia, and took control of a key airport.

Witnesses say about 200 troops entered the town of Wajid, about 100 kilometers south of the Somali-Ethiopian border.

There are no reports of fighting.

Somalia's Islamists control the traditional capital Mogadishu. They said Saturday they will not participate in talks with the secular interim government because Ethiopian troops have entered Somalia to support it.

The talks were to take place Saturday in Khartoum, Sudan. They were aimed at preventing armed conflict between the secular government and the Islamists.

Ethiopian soldiers first crossed the border on Thursday and entered Baidoa, the southern base of Somalia's interim government. They arrived a day after Islamic militiamen briefly moved to within 40 kilometers of Baidoa.

Addis Ababa denies it has sent its troops into Somalia.

The head of the Islamic Courts Council, Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, on Friday declared a holy war against Ethiopia, its traditional enemy.

Hundreds of demonstrators staged anti-Ethiopian protests in Mogadishu on Friday.

Somalia's transitional government has international backing but little influence outside Baidoa.

In contrast, the Islamists have enjoyed growing power. Fighters loyal to the sharia (Islamic) courts have taken control of much of southern Somalia. The courts have moved to implement a strict form of Islamic law in the areas under their command.

Ethiopia is a mostly Christian nation. It warned earlier this week that it was prepared to invade Somalia to defend the secular government.

Some information for this report was provided by AP and Reuters.

Friday, July 21, 2006

Clear Thinking from Cleveland's Plain Dealer

Elizabeth Sullivan, the foreign affairs columnst for the Cleveland Plain Dealer, makes an excellent point: she asks the West to recall its 1999 air campaign against Serbia. And, as she points out, France, a nation so concerned about Israel’s use of excessive force, played a significant role in that air campaign. (Read the entire article).

France should know whereof it speaks when it brands Israel for"disproportionate" force in bombing bridges, airfields and civilian power plants. Seven years ago, French pilots went after similar targets during NATO's 72-day air war against Yugoslavia. In fact, Israeli military tactics closely parallel those developed during the 1999 NATO air war and, more recently, by the U.S. against al-Qaeda. In 1999, dozens of NATO bombs and missiles hit Yugoslav bridges, communications grids, power plants, and a television station, killing at least 498 civilians. French fighter pilots flew more than 1,100 of the war's air strikes, or about 11 percent of the alliance's missions, according to Aviation Week and Space Technology magazine.

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Please Don't Bomb Us Dhimmis



Talk about Dhimmitude.... This is a picture of the Socialist Prime Minister of Spain, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, demonstrating his views on the current crisis in the Levant by donning a Palestinian kaffiyeh, after he criticized Israel for its use of "abusive force." And who says terrorism doesn't work? Bomb Madrid's trains and this is what you get.

Arithmetic of Pain

From Alan Dershowitz's "Arithmetic of Pain" regarding Israel's "disproportionate response." Read the entire article.
This is all well and good for democratic nations that deliberately locate their military bases away from civilian population centers. Israel has its air force, nuclear facilities and large army bases in locations as remote as anything can be in that country. It is possible for an enemy to attack Israeli military targets without inflicting "collateral damage" on its civilian population. Hezbollah and Hamas, by contrast, deliberately operate military wings out of densely populated areas. They launch antipersonnel
missiles with ball-bearing shrapnel, designed by Syria and Iran to maximize civilian casualties, and then hide from retaliation by living among civilians. If Israel decides not to go after them for fear of harming civilians, the terrorists win by continuing to have free rein in attacking civilians with rockets. If Israel does attack, and causes civilian casualties, the terrorists win a propaganda victory: The international community pounces on Israel for its "disproportionate" response. This chorus of condemnation actually encourages the terrorists to operate from civilian areas.

Saved Sect Threatens UK: “Innocent Blood Flowing Down the Streets of London.”

The website of the Saved Sect, proscribed yesterday by the British government, remains in operation. In fact, the site now hosts a new post by Abu Omar that ends with a threat that unless Britain changes its policies there could be “innocent blood flowing down the streets of London.” I’ll append the entire text since it might well shortly disappear. I’ll comment below.


Do You Condemn or Condone?

By Abu Omar


Oh (so-called) nation of liberations and freedom, oh (so-called) people of justice and civilisation, oh people of Britain; in the past few years we, the Muslims, have been repeatedly asked,

Do you condemn or condone the New York bombings?
Do you condemn or condone the Madrid bombings?
Do you condemn or condone the London bombings?

To those amongst you who have intelligence and possess rational minds, we say: These are ludicrous questions! Neither condemning nor condoning has stopped those responsible for these acts, nor will it ever do so. The people you are dealing with have warned you time and time again and also addressed you, and told you as to why they continue in a path of your destruction. We say to you: Take away the reason for their formation and you will take them away.

To those amongst you that have been denied the gift of intelligence and are convinced by the spin of the politicians, irrationality of ‘The Sun’, and propaganda of the BBC (and all other media outlets): Stop being foolish, listen to our voices and read our words. Your leaders are deceiving and misleading you, they wish for you to believe that they are acting justly and upon moral grounds. They present themselves as peace makers and protectors of humanity, but in reality they and their counterpart America are the cause behind the oppression throughout the world.

Oh people of Britain we have been asked questions for years, now let us ask you a few questions:
Do you condemn or condone a government that has aided in the killing of over a million children in Iraq?
Do you condemn or condone the nations that have taken over 500 hostages to Camp X-Ray for a crime that has no name?
Do you condemn or condone the gang-rape and murder of a young Muslim girl in Mahmoodiyah by American soldiers?
Do you condemn or condone the support to the pirate state of Israel, and its continual bombardment of Muslims?
Do you condemn or condone the consistent cluster bombing of Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan?
Do you condemn or condone the witch hunt of innocent Muslims in the UK?

Oh people of Britain, we live with you and amongst you, and we do not want to see innocent blood flowing down the streets of London or elsewhere. We are people of Truth, because we believe in the ultimate truth, that is: ‘None has the right to be worshipped, obeyed and followed but Allah (the true God), and Muhammad (peace be upon him) is the Messenger of Allah’, and we warn you oh people: the continual invasion, occupation, bombing, killing, murdering, and torturing of Muslims around the world will continue to give justifications to those people that desire to inflict revenge.

And if you do not take heed from our advice and warnings then do not ask us: Do you condemn or condone?

First off, the charge that the United States and Great Britain are responsible for the death of a million Iraqi children is an old canard of the Islamists and the western left. Actually, it began with a figure of a half-million, and even that presumed that there would have been zero infant-mortality in Iraq had it not been subject to the sanctions. Moreover, the responsibility for those that did die due to the UN-imposed blockade rests with Saddam Hussein. Second, I do condone holding the detainees at Camp X-Ray. And they are not being held for a crime with no name. It’s called terrorism. The third one is easy: I’m sure no one in Britain condones the rape of any Iraqi women. That’s why the United States is prosecuting the accused rapist. Fourth, I do support Israel, which I do not consider a “pirate-state.” They do bombard Muslims (don’t Muslims give a shit when Christian Arabs get bombed?) because some of them refuse to accept the fact of Israeli existence and conduct constant terror campaigns against the Jewish state. Fifth, cluster bombs aren’t some kind of new weapon. And sixth, as to the “witch hunt” of “innocent Muslims in the UK,” if Abu Omar is referring to yesterdays’ proscriptions, writing as someone familiar with the material on the website of the two groups, I was surprised they were up as long as they were. Both groups are Islamist and jihadist. They claim they do not support terror, but they praise bin Laden and other jihadists, and consider the British form of government illegitimate and call for its replacement with Islamic rule.

After reading the final paragraph of the article, can anyone wonder why the British government proscribed these groups? Talk about a classic “veiled threat”! But what I find most interesting is the mistake that appears in that final paragraph: Abu Omar acknowledges that if British actions provide “justifications to those people that desire to inflict revenge,” that revenge will strike the “innocent”—“innocent blood flowing down the streets of London or elsewhere.” In the past, the jihadists have not subscribed to the distinction between the innocent and guilty. All Britons were guilty because they live in a democratic country and support, either through action or inaction, their government, which itself is criminal no matter what it does because it vests sovereignty in the people, which is anathema to Islamists, hence the quote about worshipping only Allah.

There’s a “real war” on in the world today. The enemy’s goal is to replace western-style government with Islam. The Islamists do not hide the fact that is the goal they seek. Meanwhile, a core of Islamists—the jihadists—wage war on the West. Is the West expected to allow the Islamists to recruit and spread their message using the western media in the midst of that war? If there had been an internet during the Second World War, would those German-Americans who were pro-Hitler and calling for the replacement of the American Constitutional system with a Nazi dictatorship have had the right to maintain websites to recruit potential members and saboteurs?

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

British Ban al-Ghurabaa’ and The Saved Sect

BBC Report

I’m almost sorry to see them go because their websites provided me with so much material to discuss in class. As I write this the al-Ghurabaa’ site is done; the Saved Sect site is still up, at least for the time being. I’m certain that the individuals involved will reorganize and form new organizations and resume their work, just as they did when Sheik Omar Bakri Muhammad was deported and al-Muhajiroun proscribed. The Saved Sect site posted a response to the British government’s actions. I’ve appended it below, since the site may not be available much longer.

The Banning of Al-Ghurabaa and The Saved Sect

The British government on Monday 17 July 2006 proscribed Al-Ghurabaa and The Saved Sect, two Islamic organisations at the forefront of carrying the true Islamic call in the UK.

The British government, after having failed to engage with these organisations and put up any credible argument to counter their accusations and stand up to their challenges, has resulted in banning these groups with the aim of silencing them. The failure of the government to debate and discuss the issues of concern for the Muslims only adds fuel to the idea that this is a war against Islam and Muslims.

These groups are both Islamic organisations whose primary aims are to convey the Islamic call to the masses. As a result of their non-compromise attitude and the clear exposition of the British government’s policies towards Muslims – here and abroad – they have faced stiff criticism (from the non-Muslims and hypocrites). The media campaign has been ongoing with the demonising of its members and the clear lies against them in order to make headlines. This, together with the failings of the government regarding 7/7, Iraq and Afghanistan, has led to the banning of these organisations as a means of showing themselves to be making progress when the truth is far from it.

These groups were instrumental in challenging and exposing the corruption in society and offering Islam as a viable and immediate solution to the problems of mankind and as an alternative to the selfish and immoral capitalist way of life. They stood in defence of Muslims and supported their causes exposing the government in its discriminative and racist policies, at the same time uncovering their hidden agendas. They defended the honour of Islam and Muslims whenever it was violated and stood together with Muslims worldwide. Furthermore, they challenged and highlighted the fallacies of the so-called "war on terror", often asking the questions others were scared to even entertain.

The failure of capitalism as a way of life is becoming ever clearer, this being an example of it. A country that once claimed freedom of speech has displayed the failure of such an idea by preventing the voices that speak against it from doing so in the banning of these non-violent, political organisations. It is obvious that the government not only fears more bombing and potential suicide attacks, but it also fears Islam as a comprehensive system of life. The government fears the true Islamic revival and has no defence for it except censure and proscription. The only threat that capitalism as an ideology faces is the threat of Islam as a way of life, a very real threat that they are determined to fight against.

The nature of the non-Muslims is for them to impede the call of Islam and to fight against it on various fronts. Indeed the Messenger Muhammad (SAW) himself suffered boycott and censorship at the hands of the polytheists of Quraysh where they too prevented him from speaking. They didn’t allow Him (SAW) to use any public platform to convey his message and even restricted his movement, eventually placing a general boycott upon him which expelled him to the outskirts of Makkah. Yet he persisted in his duty and continued to carry the call of Islam despite what the people thought of him and what restrictions they tried imposing upon him. This is because the Deen of Islam is much greater and of more significance than anyone and anything.

If the government believes that by proscribing these groups they are in some way making progress in their war against terror or that it will dissuade people from committing acts of terrorism then they are severely mistaken. This would only be an illusion to those thinking that they live in an ideal world. If anything, this will increase the anger amongst the Muslims and ferment the notion that the British government is engaged in a crusade against Islam and Muslims and has further displayed its hatred towards us. Banning groups that do not engage in violence is a sign of weakness and defeat, not constructive policy.

The banning of these groups will potentially disrupt the security that the Muslims in Britain are living in, resulting in the creation of more enemies, a situation that the government does not need. The Muslims have a right to stand up for themselves, they have a right to defend their beliefs, their fellow Muslims and they also have a right to defend speaking the truth. This is a right that is ordained upon us by the Lord of the Worlds and an obligation applicable at all times and places.

Mubarak Criticizes Hamas and Hezbollah

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had tough words for Hamas and Hezbollah Tuesday. In an interview with the state-owned Al-Watani Al-Youm, often described as the president’s “official mouthpiece,” he stated: “Igniting the situation to achieve limited gains means losing sight of the main Palestinian goal of obtaining an independent state." He indicated that what he said about "the Palestinian resistance also applied to the Lebanese resistance." "Nobody doubts the right of peoples to resist occupation forces,” he told Al-Watani Al-Youm. “But this resistance should take gains and losses into account." "The Israeli escalation in Lebanon is dragging the entire region onto a slippery slope," he warned, adding that the “Lebanese people and the Palestinian people are paying the price."

Saudis Support UN Force in South Lebanon

While Saudi Arabia remains critical of Israeli actions and the American veto in the UN last week, it has announced that it will support the dispatch of a UN force to southern Lebanon assuming the Lebanese government does the same. At a Jiddah press conference, Prince Saud, the Kingdom’s foreign minister, affirmed: “We support the Lebanese government affirming control over all of its territory.”

He also called for international support for “the legitimate Lebanese government’s efforts to preserve its authority and supremacy over the whole of Lebanon.” He also stated, in a remark aimed at Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran: “What Lebanon needs right now is peace and not to gamble with its interests and its national unity. This is what the Kingdom wishes from all countries interested in [the] Arab situation in general and Lebanon specifically.”

Prince Saud acknowledged that the King Abdullah had received a message from the Iranian president, but the foreign minister refused to disclose its contents or to, as the Arab News report put it, “to name any names.”

Ahmadinejad: "The Final Point of Liberal Civilization"

In a television speech that you can watch at the MEMRI-TV site, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told his audience that Israel represented “the final point of liberal civilization.”

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: The final point of liberal civilization is the false and corrupt state that has occupied Jerusalem. That's the bottom line. That's what all those who talk about liberalism and support it have in common. . . .

In my opinion, if we unmask the liberal order, and present it to humanity bare and without any mask, we will see that its role model is a bunch of shameless Zionists, perpetrating crimes in Palestine. . . .

They should know that the volcano of rage of the peoples of the region is boiling. . . .

I'm telling you… If this volcano erupts--and we are on the brink of eruption . . . and if this ocean rages, its waves will not be limited to the region.

The file containing 60 years of crimes committed by this regime is placed on the table of the peoples. Each and every one of them will be held accountable.

The interview, taken together with a report from the Islamic Republic News Agency, suggests that Ahmadinejad sees the end of the crisis coming. But he’s not talking about the problems in Lebanon or Gaza. No, he’s talking about the clash between the Muslim and the non-Muslim worlds. And he sees the final victory of the former in the offing.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad here on Tuesday evening warned bullying powers of the wrath of regional nations. Addressing a local seminar attended by several university professors and thinkers in this northeastern provincial capital, he said bullying powers will soon burn in the fire of regional nations' wrath and the scenario of oppressors is coming to end.

The world is on the verge of great developments, he said, adding that world Muslims will soon be victorious over their aggressors. As to the current situation in Palestinian territories, the Iranian president called for a free and fair election for Palestinians through which they may determine their own fate. He denounced the Zionist regime for its dreadful crimes in the region on the pretext of obtaining release of two of its captured soldiers, adding that the current Israeli offensive has been pre-planned. The aggressors will suffer the most in the current situation, he concluded.


Does he really believe what he says? Was the election in the Palestinian Authority that brought Hamas to power not free and fair. Does he believe the Sunni Arab world is prepared to accept the leadership of Shi'a Iran?

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

The Islamists' Line on Lebanon?

Over the past few days, as the crisis in Lebanon deepened, I kept checking some of the English-language Islamist sites to see what they had to say about the state of affairs. They were, and mostly remain, silent. Since they often praise bin Laden, I thought their silence might be related to the recent Iranian charges that al-Qaeda is controlled by unnamed first world powers. But today, when I checked the site of “The Saved Sect,” I understood.

The Saved Sect, aka the Savior Sect, is an offshoot of Al-Muhajiroun, an Islamist movement banned in the United Kingdom after its principle leader, Sheik Omar Bakri, was deported. The Saved Sect and al-Ghurabaa’ are considered the replacements for al-Muhajiroun—redundant front operations, if you will. The Saved Sect derives its name from a saying of the Prophet Muhammad drawn from a Hadith: “My nation will be divided into 73 sects, all of them will be in the Fire except for one.” Both of these UK-based groups host websites; they are clearly Islamist and support jihadism.

At some point over the last few days the Saved Sect site posted a new lecture entitled “Beware and be Aware from the Shee'ah Raafidah.” I’ll spare you the details of the history of the term, but it basically describes the bulk of Shi’a Muslims as “rejecters,” and thus members of a deviant apostate sect, rather than fellow Muslims. If you read the lecture, you will gain some insight into how al-Zarqawi could have justified his ruthless attacks against the Shi’a population of Iraq. Hezbollah and Iran, of course, are also “Shee'ah Raafidah.”


The lecture is too long to append in whole, but here are a few highlights.


In an era of much division and disunity it is essential to know with whom one should ally with and from whom one should keep their distance. Sincere Muslims must recognize the friend from the foe. The Ummah must refrain from seeking support and allegiance from an enemy that hides behind the mask of an angel, an enemy that embraces with one hand while hiding the dagger in the other, waiting for the opportunity to stab you in the back. . . .


For certain sects, groups and cults, the concept of betraying, deceiving and cheating is an integral part of their 'Aqeedah (belief). Amongst these treacherous people the vilest are the Shee’ah Raafidah. . . .


Under the guise of ‘Taqiyah’ (concealing the truth/lying), the Shee'ah Raafidah justify their betrayal and treason against the Deen of Islam and Muslims. The Shee'ah Raafidah believe that by practicing Taqiyah they will achieve leadership over the Ummah of Islam; hence, they will lie, cheat and betray to reach their goals. . . .


Even from the perspective of Jihaad, the Shee'ah Raafidah have proven their animosity towards those that desire to bring honour to Islam and remove the shackles of humiliation. The Shee'ah Raafidah believe that whosoever engages in Jihaad is an apostate; this belief of theirs proves to whom they have given allegiance to. History has proven that the children of Al-Qami [the Shi’a Abbassid Grand Vizier who reputedly opened the gates of Baghdad for the Mongols, who subsequently slaughtered the khalifa and 800,000 people] will always side with crusaders and their allies against Ahl As-Sunnah. . . .


Oh people of Sunnah, the only unity accepted by Allah (SWT) is that which is based upon the Quran and Sunnah and upon the understanding of the Salaf of the Ummah. Do not be fooled by the Shee'ah Raafidah, they are your enemies so treat them as enemies. . . .


In the first footnote of the lecture the author describes the Ayatollah Khomeini thus: [bolding mine]


He was titled ‘Grand Ayatollah Syed Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini. He was a Shee’ah Raafidah scholar and according to the Shee’ah he was also a Marja (a source of imitation). He became the supreme leader of Iran and died 3rd June 1989. “May the Curse of Allah be upon him and those who follow him.” He died upon kufr and he was a man that would insult the Mother of the Believers, Ayesha (RA), and many of the Sahaabah (RA).


In short, the lecture’s message to Sunni Muslims is clear: do not follow the leadership of either Iran or Hezbollah now, or ever.

Iranian Reality Check?

Apparently the London-based, Arabic-language newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat is reporting that the Iranians have directed Hezbollah to “curb” its attacks on Israel. According to a Ynet News report, the Iranians are concerned about the hostility being generated against Hezbollah, especially within Lebanon.

Monday, July 17, 2006

Saudis Sharpen Attacks on Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran

A Saudi Cabinet statement released today sharpened the Kingdom’s criticism of those forces that have set in motion the latest Middle Eastern crisis. The statement offers the usual and pro-forma condemnations of Israel. The statement, without naming the United States, also criticizes it for the veto in the Security Council last week. But the harshest language is reserved for Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran, actors that are something less than “reasonable,” and are responsible for setting in motion a chain of events that has devastated Lebanon and “imprisoned” the Palestinians. From the statement:

Some elements and groups have got loose and slipped into taking decisions on their own that Israel has exploited to wage a ferocious war against Lebanon and to imprison the entire Palestinian people. . . . Saudi Arabia stands together with the legitimate and reasonable-minded national forces in Lebanon and occupied Palestine to combat these dangers to the Arab and Muslim nation. . . .

Egypt Pursues Saudi Line on Lebanon

From The Daily Star Egypt.

Lebanese PM’s Statement

An official statement by Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora appears in today’s The Daily Star. The bulk of the document contains criticism (somewhat tame, considering what’s actually happening) of Israel for once again attacking Lebanon. You have to read through most of this to get to the important part of the statement—what Lebanon wants to see happen next. I’ve appended that text below.

Dear Lebanese,

Our government and people are facing fierce aggression, to which we will not surrender. While we take all the political and relief measures, I would like to remind you of what the Cabinet decided in its latest session: "We stress the Lebanese government's right to protect the country and citizens, preserve its security and safety and its right and duty to exert its control over all the Lebanese territory and make national decisions on the internal and international levels."

Accordingly, we urge an immediate cease-fire under the auspices of the United Nations, which would be able, in cooperation with sisterly Arab countries and the Lebanese government, to resolve all the problems that caused the latest clashes.

Secondly, we call for the establishment of the government's sovereignty in all Lebanese territory in cooperation with the UN ... and adherence to the Truce Agreement signed in 1949 and the Taif Accord.

Third, Lebanon urges its brothers and friends in the world to immediately help the Lebanese by either pressuring Israel to stop its attacks or providing humanitarian aid.

The Lebanese government holds the Israelis responsible for this humanitarian and economic catastrophe in Lebanon. We were still working on erasing the signs of the Israeli invasions in 1982, 1993 and 1996 and now Israeli aggression is targeting us one again.

Lebanon is a cursed country that needs immediate and comprehensive help to rebuild what has been destroyed by this hideous war.

We are very proud of our country and we will overcome this crisis. Lebanon will survive; Lebanon will survive; Lebanon will survive.

Note the first point and the call for “sisterly Arab countries” to resolve the issue. Siniora here is disinviting the Iranians and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Note the call for Beirut’s sovereignty over “all Lebanese territory” and the reference to the Taif Accord. The 1989 Taif Accord, and the subsequent United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, called for the Lebanese government to disarm the Hezbollah militia in the south. Hezbollah has opposed the implementation of either of these agreements. The Prime Minister, apparently, is prepared, perhaps in cooperation with the United Nations, to use the Lebanese army to rein in Hezbollah in the south.

And then there’s the “quid”: a call for international aid, which will probably flow when this is over from the West and the Arab Gulf states, assuming the Lebanese government acts.
This is another of those public Arab statements that have to be read carefully. At first glance it may appear to be just another round of Israel bashing. But it is much more.

Iranian Prestidigitation

For those of you unfamiliar with the word, it is primarily a magic term that means sleight of hand. The magician tries, though assorted hand movements, to get you to watch meaningless actions so that you miss the moves that he does not wish you to see.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is proving to be a fairly good practitioner of the art. While the crisis rages in and around Lebanon, the world’s attention has been shifted away from the international dispute concerning the Iranian nuclear program. Nor are all of the world’s academic and media “experts” able to keep their eyes on what is actually happening in the Middle East. For example, anyone perusing Juan Cole’s “Informed Comment” weblog would see only the picture of Arab and world-other-than-U.S condemnation of the Israelis. That’s neither to say that the condemnation is not real, nor a major part of the story, but the more interesting and important elements of what is happening are to be found within the subtexts, which I have discussed in posts here and here.

Ahmadinejad wants the present crisis to be viewed in the Arab world and the West as nothing more than yet another Arab-Israeli dispute, in which the poor Arabs play the victims. That’s not to say that the Palestinians and the Lebanese are not poor, and are not victims. The problem is that there is so much more going on here and it is amazing how many people cannot see it.

If you want to understand what is happening, you have to avert your glance from the Iranian President’s left hand, and keep your eyes on his right. The Saudis can see what is happening. The Israelis see it. The Americans see it. And I suspect the Jordanians and Egyptians see it as well.

This is an inter-Islamic struggle for control of the “Palestinian problem.” Will the Arabs control that process, or the Iranians? Will states control that process or non-state actors? This is a life-and-death issue for states such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. The question may ultimately become: are the stakes so high that the Arab states might sell out Hezbollah or Hamas?

After a recent Arab foreign ministers conference in Cairo, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa told reporters:

We all decided that the peace process has failed and that the mechanisms, proposals and committees were either deceptive or sedatives or contrary to the peace process, or handed the process over as a gift to Israeli diplomacy to do with as it wished. . . . This has led to and is leading to the collapse of stability in the Middle East. . . . So there is no peace process. . . . So we take it back to the United Nations, and maybe the date will be in September. . . .

Does this a signal to the Israelis that they have until September to do whatever it is they are doing? And by the way, we are coming up on the thirty-sixth anniversary of “Black September.”

However this crisis plays out, refuse to be distracted. Watch Tehran, Riyadh, and Cairo. Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Syria are nothing but pawns, and the last three-named rabbits in Ahmadinejad’s hat.

Sunday, July 16, 2006

Hezbollah Rocket Hits Egyptian Ship

From The Daily Star, Egyptian Edition.

Saudis Suggest Path

Monday’s Arab News published an editorial further elucidating the Saudi line in the present crisis. The editorial discusses the difficult situation facing Lebanon. If the Lebanese government attempts to rein in Hezbollah it risks plunging the country into a renewed civil war. But if it does not, it runs the risk of being turned into a battleground by the disruptive attacks of Israel (which the Saudis at least, unlike the Iranians, actually term “Israel”). What course should Lebanon choose?

The editorial, while acknowledging that “any effort by Fuad Siniora’s government to use force against Hezbollah could trigger another bloody civil war,” nonetheless suggests that just such a course must “start now,” arguing that “[d]isarming Hezbollah should be done gradually, through a process of national reconciliation.”

Saudi reasoning reflects a realistic appreciation of the international situation (my bolding).

The Israeli response to a Hezbollah attack on Haifa will be brutal; world reaction will surely not act as a deterrent. The UN Security Council failed to agree on a statement calling for a cease-fire in Lebanon, despite pleas from the Lebanese prime minister. President Bush will not press Israel to halt its attacks. Hezbollah, meanwhile, is firing waves of rockets ever deeper into Israel, getting closer to Tel Aviv. Neither side is showing signs of backing down from the conflict. The relationship between Hezbollah and the government is complex, but should not be confused. The government is not responsible for Hezbollah’s actions. Because Hezbollah operates outside the government’s authority, the Lebanese government should not be held responsible for the present mess. States, not parties, should take decisions about going to war. Lebanese civilians and their cities are bearing the brunt of an assault for which Siniora holds both Israel and Hezbollah responsible—the former for using a disproportionate use of deadly force to secure the release of two captured Israeli soldiers, the latter for dragging Lebanon into a conflict the government neither chose nor wanted. Should it take its fate in its own hands, the Lebanese government would be exercising the right and duty it has in extending control over all its territory.

While it is true that the Saudis are pointing fingers equally at both Hezbollah and Israel for the crisis, the action Riyadh is recommending is aimed primarily at the former. I suspect that this will be seen in Washington and Jerusalem as a signal by the Saudis that the Lebanese government must act to shut down Hezbollah, and if it does not, or cannot, the Saudis are not likely to take action in support of Hezbollah unless the Israeli offensive broadens and deepens.

As I pointed out in an earlier post, the subtext of this crisis is pitting non-national (Hamas and Hezbollah) actors against national actors (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, etc.), and the Arab states against Iran. It is this division that has allowed the Israelis, thus far, the ability to act, and allowed the United States to remain less than fully engaged.

What should we be watching? First, does the Lebanese government show signs of the will to bring its southern region under control. Second, does the Lebanese government have the power to bring Hezbollah under control? If the answer to those questions proves to be yes, then the question will be how does Syria respond? If the answer is no, then it follows that Israel will have to do the job itself.

There are far too many variables to make predictions, but one thing that can be said with certainty is that the present predicament is not your standard Arab-Israeli crisis. This one is wholly other.

Mumbai Blast Confessions

The Times of India reports that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has received information from the security services that two jihadists arrested in connection with the Mumbai train bombings have confessed.

The two members of the jehadi suicide squad were arrested by security forces from central India, most probably from Madhya Pradesh, and have since provided significant details about the Mumbai mayhem as well as the larger anti-India terror campaign that ISI [the Pakistani intelligence service] has assigned to favourite jehadi gang, Lashkar-e-Taiba. The arrests are described as "a significant catch".

Jihadist terror in India is extremely important, when placed in context. The Islamists and their apologists in the West prefer to link the actions of the Jihadists to the history of western imperialism and colonialism. The problem with that line of argument is that it does not work for India. Do the Hindus have an extensive history of aggression and expansion at the expense of their Muslim neighbors? No, the Indians suffered (far more and far longer) at the hands of the West than have the Arab or Iranian regions of the Islamic world. In fact, it was the Muslims who invaded the subcontinent and spread Islam, not the other way around.

The fact that Islamists and Jihadists also strike at Hindus in India (and Hindus and Christians in Pakistan) is indicative of the broader goals of the Islamist movement and the fact that the past actions of the West are tossed about as a means to divide rather than to explain the true motivations of the Jihadists. Kashmir provides a convenient and immediate excuse for action in the sub-continent. But it is nothing more than that.

Aryan Nations Supports Hezbollah

In the latest example of the growing link between jihadists abroad and neo-Nazis at home, the website of Aryan Nations exhorts Israel’s enemies to “WIPE THE TERRORIST STATE OF ISRAELI [sic] OFF THE MAP!” The group goes on to call “Syria, Iran, Iraq, Jordon, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Sudan, let ALL Islamic believing nations, in fact let the WORLD UNITE and declare WAR on Israeli and BOMB it into OBLIVION! Let this WAR not be over till every last yehudi-shataan WORLDWIDE is DEAD!”

Aryan Nations then provides a link to the website of Hezbollah. Aryan Nations then offers its praise: “Congratulations' Hizbolla keep up the missile attack against the Terrorist State of Israeli! Spare NO targets or cities! Leave NO jew alive or building standing!”

Iran and Syria Wish to Bring on a Cataclysm

Despite the warnings coming from several Arab states, among them Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Syria, backed by Iran, continues to take a hard line, despite the worsening crisis and the clear lack of unity among the Arab states.

Reports continue to support charges of direct Syrian and Iranian complicity in Hezbollah’s actions. The Jerusalem Post reports that the rockets that struck Haifa, killing eight, were Syrian made. While the New York Post reports that the Iranian-made C802 missile that struck an Israeli warship on Friday was fired by a team of Iranian Revolutionary Guards operating on the ground in Lebanon.

A news story from the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) suggests no softening from Tehran. According to the report:


Addressing the Zionist regime, [President Ahmadinejad] said, “Just as you founded the occupying regime on lies and conspiracy, you had better disintegrate it ourself.If you apologize to the residents of the region, the noble regional nations will disregard the past.” The president called on the Zionists to lay the cornerstones for positive and constructive exchange with the regional nations, adding that otherwise the fury of the world nations will rise and they will investigate the crimes committed by the regime and their supporters.

Does Ahmadinejad really expect the Israelis to close down their own state? If they refuse, he warned: “If you are unable to end such conspiracies and you can hardly manage to apologize for your aggressive moves, let the Palestinian people have a free election to decide their own fate.” Accordng to IRNA: “The president warned the Zionist regime that if they do not respond to this invitation properly, they should expect a horrible destiny.”

Ahmadinejad, no stranger to hyperbole, and tired of comparing the “Zionist entity” to the Nazi regime, stated that the “Zionist regime's aggressions” make those committed by the Mongols “look tame.”

This is not a crisis that is spinning out of control. This is a crisis controlled from Tehran and Damascus, both of which have consciously chosen to escalate in an effort to provoke a cataclysm.

Islamist Group Claims Responsibility for Mumbai Attacks

The Times of India reports that the Islamist Jihadist group Lashkar-e-Qahhar has claimed responsibility for the Mumbai attacks of July 11, 2006. The group also claimed that the strike was not a suicide attack and that all sixteen bombers had survived. Among future targets identified the group is the Taj Mahal.