The Real War

A few minutes ago John Bolton announced that the French and Americans have agreed on a ceasefire proposal for the ever intensifying fracas between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon. It will be presented to the U.N. Security Council at 1500 today for dissection, discussion, and approval. This is an important step in recreating the working relationship that once existed between France and the United States, but weakened after 1945 and apparently died in 2001 (along with the French Fry, aka briefly and in some venues as the Freedom Fry).

Unfortunately, it may not be the key step in stopping the IDF and Hezbollah from killing each other, and anyone else unfortunate enough to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. After all, Americans and the French are not the people busily dying; and I somehow missed the names of the representatives from Israel and Hezbollah (much less from Iran and Syria!) who helped hammer out this agreement. However, the ceasefire agreement may surprise me, and the boys may all be home for Ramadan, Yom Kippur, etc.

Speaking of surprises, I just saw a headline on the Drudge Report that "Iran Admits: Supplied Missiles to Hezbollah." I did not bother reading the article because I am not sure that my heart can stand the revelation that the peaceful Iranian government actually supplied weapons to Hezbollah. Who would have thunk it? Particular after the Zelzal missiles, manufactured in Iran, had been clearly identified weeks ago. Next, I suppose, someone will even accuse innocent Iranians of bankrolling, training, and encouraging Hezbollah to attack Israel. Ridiculous!

More on the ceasefire proposal tomorrow. -- W. Dudley for M. Palmer

Posted by Mike Palmer at 11:58 | Permalink | Comments   

Larry King's interview with Condoleezza Rice on Thursday offered little new to the ongoing Israeli-Hezbollah conflict. In response to a question about a potential ceasefire, King received a stock answer from the Secretary of State:

Well, I can't really discuss the particulars at this point. We are moving, Larry, toward being able to do this in phases that will permit first an end or a stoppage of the hostilities and based on the establishment of some very important principles for how we move forward.

Such a statement at least proves that Rice is becoming an astute politician (i.e., able to spout plenty while saying nothing), even if it does not provide much hope for a meaningful settlement in the region. But the interview did make me consider the two words "cease" and "fire." Some decades back, when THE ENEMY waved red instead of green flags, the United States had the influence with Israel to say "Cease Fire!" and get results (if the IDF was winning, and it usually was). Seems that people expect the same results today, but it just ain't so. Israel is stronger, and its enemies fragmented. The support of the United States is welcome, but far from an absolute necessity. Besides, if any nation in this world has earned its sovereignty, it is Israel. And the government of the United States would be foolish to even try to order these people to stop fighting. That should not be a problem, however, as the enemy is a common one. So now we must ask our friends to please consider a "ceasefire" -- hopefully after Hezbollah is eradicated.

In other news yesterday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to bomb Tel Aviv if Israeli bombs continued to fall on Beirut (speaking, of course, from a pre-taped video to avoid bombs falling on him). The Israeli response mentioned the total destruction of Lebanon's infrastructure should a single missile hit Tel Aviv. Later in the day, Nasrallah apparently offered to end missile attacks into Israel if Israel ended its bombing in Lebanon. Let us think that one through: missle stocks running low - resupply interdicted - missles not breaking Israeli morale - bombs certainly hurting Lebanese morale - missiles useless as close support for troops - Israeli bombs very effective in close support - resupply interdicted - resupply interdicted - offer deal. I will not bother holding my breath for an Israeli acceptance of that deal.

Finally, the State department yesterday announced that American tax dollars (more likely, deficit spending dollars) would equip and train a new Lebanese Army after the current conflict is resolved. My question is, are we not doing that in Iraq? And, WOW, that sure is working well! Still, I think it is a fine idea to give guns to Hezbollah -- I mean Lebanon. Why don't we hand a few MBT's to Syria while we are it? -- W. Dudley for (the vacationing) M. Palmer

Posted by Mike Palmer at 07:41 | Permalink | Comments   

The following article, titled "Israeli 'hackers' target Hezbollah TV," appeared in yesterday's Aljazeera:

A series of pictures and statements, apparently from Israeli-backed hackers, have appeared on Lebanon's Hezbollah-run television station, some showing pictures of corpses and others labelling the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, as a liar.
One of the images shown on al-Manar television portrayed the body of a fighter lying face-down, wearing khaki trousers with a text in Arabic beneath: "This is the photograph of a body of a member of Hezbollah's special forces."
"Nasrallah lies: it is not us that is hiding our losses," continued the text, which appeared during the evening news and stayed on screen for several minutes.
A photograph of Nasrallah himself also appeared with the legend: "member of Hezbollah: watch out."
Another photograph of corpses was framed by the words: "there are a large number of corpses like this on the ground and Nasrallah is hiding this truth."Psychological war Israel also recently hacked into FM radio stations and instead of normal programmes a two-minute recording was repeatedly broadcast.
"Hassan sent men to fight the Israeli army, an army of steel, without preparing them. Stop listening to patriotic hymns for a moment, reflect and bring your feet back to the ground," said the Arabic message.
Israel has reportedly used a variety of technological weapons to add a psychological dimension to its war in Lebanon.
Lebanese mobile phone users have also received text and voice messages saying the Israeli offensive was aimed against Hezbollah and not the Lebanese people.

There are many undercurrents in the ongoing struggle between Jihadists and the rest of us. But the propaganda war is, perhaps, the most important. In some cases, as in the article above, the methodology is direct and the message clear. In other cases, the message is subtle. For example, the constant comparison of civilian casualties in the struggle between Israel and Lebanon ("dozens" of Israelis, "hundreds" of Lebanese) paints a grim image of murderous Israelis who are more than willing to commit genocide. To the ill-educated masses, this is a clear picture and they will condemn Israel -- despite the following facts (much less advertised!): 1. Having been under constant attack since the creation of their nation in 1947, the Israeli people are accustomed to seeking cover in the private and state-built shelters that dot the landscape. Living in constant fear of attack from artillery, bombers, missiles and suicide-bombers instills survival traits such as "move fast and duck." 2. The IDF does not cower behind its civilian population, as does those stalwarts of Jihadism in Hezbollah and Hamas. And finally, 3., it is the Jihadists who have called time and time again for genocide: the eradication of Israel and its people.

Propaganda can also be involuntary. Take, for example, that epic hero of the big screen, Mel Gibson, who recently rediscovered the old saying: In vino veritas. All of a sudden, an icon stands accused of (dare I put the words in print?) "anti-Semitism." The media, quick on the uptake as ever when a buck from sponsors is to be earned, flashes this across screen and paper hour after hour. Eventually, it even makes its way to The Daily Show, where many Americans apparently get their news of the day.

Now, my generation (and those that followed) began its training in abhorence for that particular phrase in elementary school, if not from parents who discovered the horror of German death camps in 1945. We may have forgotten it across the years, but seeing/hearing the words over and over and over again reminds us of the long persecution of the Jewish people before the United Nations gave them a refuge in Palestine. The result: a subtle shift in support of Israel. It may not last, of course, as dear old Mel becomes last week's piece of Hollywood idiocy, BUT it may buy a little more time for Israel to further punish Hezbollah before Washington caves to popular pressure and supports an immediate ceasefire.

And the Real War continues. -- W. Dudley for M. Palmer

Posted by Mike Palmer at 07:57 | Permalink | Comments   

Yesterday, Israel committed 10,000 troops to a full scale invasion of southern Lebanon, a clear attempt to seize and establish a buffer against short range missile attacks by Hezbollah into northern Israel (for the moment, it appears that Hezbollah's long range missiles have either been expended -- or deleted from inventory by Israeli air). This initial wave is backed by thousands of mobilizing troops, part of the 30,000 reservists called to active duty over the weekend. The seizure of this buffer zone is a sign that, cease fire cometh or cometh not, Israel has no intention of returning the area to Lebanese control at any time in the near future. Does Israel plan to occupy all of Lebanon? Keeping in mind that Israel had over 100,000 troops in the field during its 1982 conquest of that country (followed by 18 years of a miserable occupation), it seems doubtful.

Raids deeper into Lebanon are another matter, as yesterday's commando assault against a hospital in the city of Baalbek, some 80 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border, attests. From the news that has dribbled out of the region, this appears to have been a model assault of helioborne infantry supported by the Israeli air force. The raid, meant to capture key Hezbollah leaders, seems to have snagged several lesser members before the Israelis withdrew without losing any troopers.

Serious business, perhaps the call-up of 30,000 troops more than the invasion of Lebanon. This would not be the first time in history that a mobilization of one nation led to a widening of the war to include other countries. In fact, the Israeli cabinet immediately contacted Syria once the decision had been made to institute the call up, reassuring the strongest supporters of Hezbollah that the mobilization was against Hezbollah and not Syria. The implied message, of course, was: Not this time.

Secretary Rice observed yesterday that a ceasefire now seemed possible within days, instead of weeks. I think she is rather optimistic, especially after perusing the excellent timeline of this conflict in today's Aljazeera. That timeline captures the key variable in all of this: the number of dead, civilian and military alike. --W. Dudley for M. Palmer

Posted by Mike Palmer at 07:43 | Permalink | Comments   

I have not yet mentioned that my eldest son is serving with the 4th Infantry Division in Baghdad. Thus I try to keep a close eye on the events in Iraq despite the distractions of Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Somalia, etc., etc. A site that does a service to all of us connected to the 4th ID is Bob Babcock's 4th Infantry News. You find things there that do not make the national news media, and frequently provide another perspective. The following is from Bob's 100th entry (in Vol. 2; he provided the same service during 4th ID's last tour in Vol. 1), dated 31 July 2006.

33 terrorists killed in daylong battle with ISF, MND-B Soldiers

By Cpl. Michael Molinaro
2nd BCT PAO, 4th Inf. Div. PAO
July 28, 2006

FOB KALSU, Iraq – Iraqi Security Forces and Multi-National Division – Baghdad Soldiers engaged in a heated firefight with terrorists in Musayyib July 23. Soldiers from 1st Battalion, 67th Armor Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, along with Iraqi army soldiers from 2nd Battalion, 4th Brigade, 8th Iraqi Army Division, Musayyib police officers, and members of Hillah SWAT, killed 33 terrorists during the day-long battle.

“This was a coordinated, sustained and complex attack against Iraqi police and 1-67 AR elements in the city,” said Lt. Col. Patrick Donahoe, commander, 1-67 AR.

“We received reports of small skirmishes between IPs and terrorists erupting at a police station, including the seizing of IP vehicles and weapons in the main downtown circle, which includes the Husseniya,” said Donahoe. “Soldiers from Company D, 1-67 AR, were in the area to investigate reports of death squads making a presence in the area and surprised the terrorists when they arrived on the scene so quickly”.

“When we entered the downtown area, we soon came under fire from the area around the Husseniya, including a rocket-propelled attack from inside the structure,” said Capt. Irvin Oliver, commander, Co. D, 1-67 AR.

The Soldiers dug in while other elements of 1-67 AR and their Iraqi counterparts rushed to assist and defeat the terrorists. The combined force cordoned off the city from all directions, keeping the fight to a scaled area and making sure innocent civilians were not harmed. Combat Aviation elements soon arrived on the scene and witnessed and filmed armed individuals entering numerous buildings around the city. An AH-64 Apache helicopter engaged a fuel truck suspected of being laden with explosives as it made its way toward 1-67 AR’s position.

Terrorists fired on the combined forces from a building. A 2nd BCT M1A2 Abrams tank crew eliminated the threat when it fired its 120mm gun, killing the six terrorists inside, said Oliver. Terrorist RPG teams set up positions throughout the area and continued attacking.

“The professionalism and thorough training of the Soldiers was evident as they took out the teams, one by one. Every guy stepped up during the fight; I have never been as proud of my company as I was during this battle,” said Oliver.

“The IA soldiers fought right along side us, and I was honored to have them as part of our team. They proved that they are more than ready to provide security in the province,” he added. Small-arms fire was exchanged for a few more hours. The emplacement of roadside bombs by the terrorists failed to deny MND-B Soldiers and ISF movement in the area. The remaining terrorists fled their positions and fled the city.

“The battalion rode the sound of the guns; we fed overwhelming combat power into the city on multiple axes to defeat this threat to the rule of law. When the IPs were challenged by well-armed criminals, we joined with the Iraqi army to restore order,” said Donahoe.

“The men who attacked the IPs and CF were criminals and looters who won’t listen to the district councilor to the sheiks,” said Themir Theban, a representative of the Office of the Martyr Sadr. The attackers pointed their weapons at the Imam in the Husseniya, he added, so help was solicited from CF to arrest the ringleaders.

“Thugs and criminals tried to take over Musayyib, but they failed because the Iraqi army and police are unbeatable when they work together. The CFs were proud to assist their brothers,” said Col. John Tully, commander, 2nd BCT, 4th Inf. Div.

Thanks, Bob, and keep the light burning. -- W. Dudley for M. Palmer

Posted by Mike Palmer at 07:40 | Permalink | Comments   

In war, civilians die. Sad, but true. In this age of the smart bomb, people seem to take exception to that fact. It is interesting to consider the bombing of Dresden from 13-15 February 1945 and the resulting firestorm that consumed or in other ways destroyed over 35,000 souls (most civilian, many children). Apparently, the Allies (including the media) considered it to be a good days work. After all, the dead were part and parcel of a coalition given to world-wide domination; a coalition that had no problem with sneak assaults and the deaths of innocent civilians.

Dresden was but one of many such barbaric episodes. Need I mention Hiroshima and Nagasaki with their thousands of dead (including children)? Certainly I do not need to mention them to my father-in-law, who was in training for the invasion of the home islands even though not fully recovered from a severe wound received at Okinawa. His life expectancy increased dramatically the day that Japan surrendered. In fact, among the many veterans of the Pacific Campaign that I have had the privilege to meet in my life, I have noted few tears shed for the civilians of an empire that slaughtered its way across China, much of Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Basin. And they remember Pearl Harbor.

But today, in an obviously kinder, gentler, and less barbaric world, the situation is different. Yesterday, an Israeli bomb killed 56 civilians (mostly women and children) in Qana. Condemnation of Israel began immediately (see today's Aljazeera) at this "massacre" of innocents:

The European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, said nothing could justify the Qana bombing and said he had spoken Siniora to express his "profound dismay". "Nothing can justify that," Solana said in a statement issued in Brussels, adding that the EU backed an immediate ceasefire.

France and Britain condemned the attack.

The office of the French president, Jacques Chriac, said in a statement: "The president learnt with concern about the act of violence which cost the lives of numerous innocent victims, notably women and children in Qana. France condemns this unjustified action, which demonstrates more than ever the need for an immediate ceasefire without which there will only be other such incidents."

Britain's foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett, described the strikes as "absolutely dreadful" and "quite appalling". "We have repeatedly urged Israel to act proportionately," she said.

And from the Muslim side:

Arab and Muslim leaders spoke of "crimes" and Syria's president, Bashal al-Assad, labelled the attack "state terrorism." "The massacre committed by Israel in Qana this morning shows the barbarity of this aggressive entity. It constitutes state terrorism committed in front of the eyes and ears of the world," al-Assad said in remarks carried by state news agency SANA.

King Abdullah of Jordan said: "This criminal aggression is an ugly crime that has been committed by the Israeli forces in the city of Qana that is a gross violation of all international statutes." Abdullah, a close US ally, repeated his call for an immediate ceasefire.

Iran, accused by Washington of backing Hezbollah, also condemned the raid. "I think Israeli officials and some American ones should be tried for these sorts of crimes," said Hamid Reza Asefi, the foreign ministry spokesman.

And the Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, called the airstrike "irresponsible". "The Arab Republic of Egypt is highly disturbed and condemns the irresponsible Israeli attack on the Lebanese village of Qana, which led to the loss of innocent victims, most of which were women and children," a statement from the presidency said. Egypt, which has already called for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, stressed "the need for a serious international effort to issue an urgent Security Council resolution to stop military attacks immediately".

The United Arab Emirates condemned what it described as an "ugly massacre", and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, said it was a "crime" that underlined the need for an immediate ceasefire in the region.

Echoing Hezbollah's warning of retaliation, Mushir al-Masri, an MP with the Palestinian ruling Hamas group, said: "In the face of this open war against the Arab and Muslim nations all options are open, including striking the depth of the Zionist entity."

Even before this outpouring of condemnation, Israel had voluntarily stilled its wings for 48 hours (barring a need to target any sites launching missile strikes against Israeli civilian targets (WHAT? You mean Israeli civilians have been targetted by Hezbollah missiles?) to allow investigation of the incident. Apparently Israelis as a whole have no real desire to kill civilians -- which certainly puts them in a different league from Hezbollah, Hamas, and the World Jihadist movement in general!

Of course, the United States still stands firm besides Israel (the same as we stood firm with our allies against that evil coalition of World War II):

Rice said she was "deeply saddened by the terrible loss of innocent life". She also urged Israel to take "extraordinary care" to avoid civilian deaths in Lebanon. And while calling for a ceasefire, she said that a truce could not mean a return to the position before the war, which was triggered by Hezbollah's abduction of two Israeli soldiers in a raid out of south Lebanon on July 12.

Israel and the United States have said they want to ensure that Hezbollah can no longer carry out raids and rocket attacks and that it is eventually disarmed under a UN resolution. Washington has consistently held the view that Israel has the "right to defend itself", albeit while using "restraint". The White House spokesman, Blaine Rethmeier, said after learning about Sunday's attack there was no change in that position.The United States "continues to urge Israel to use restraint," Rethmeier said in a telephone interview with AFP. Israel has the "right to defence".

Restraint: What a wonderful, nebulous, political-type of word! How, exactly, do you practice "restraint" against an enemy who desires to see you and your culture wiped from the face of the earth? Why consider another truce or ceasefire when they have proven so ineffective in the past? Why bind the beating wings when they need to fly against an unrelenting enemy who hides behind their own civilians and sees each death as a propaganda coup?

As for the place of the United States as a potential peacemaker:

The armed wing of Abbas's Fatah faction said it would target the United States and other Western countries in retaliation [for Qana].

As for me, I mourn every useless death. I see my sons' faces in those of every warrior from both sides of this war; I see the aspects of my sweet grandchildren in every tiny, broken body. It is my wife who screams for justice for her dead.

Yet, as the cries of hatred, bigotry, and Jihad ring across the media, I sometimes think that I should be smelling the cleansing flames of Dresden, regardless of the price. -- W. Dudley, standing in for M. Palmer

Posted by Mike Palmer at 10:19 | Permalink | Comments   

Actually, I had not planned an entry until tomorrow, and find myself short on resources and research for today. So let me ramble for a bit on something that troubles me:

Something tells me that the conflict surrounding Israel at the moment will not have reached a ceasefire by the time Mike returns. Even the glib pundits of FOX, MSNBC, CNN, ET AL seem to have their doubts. Of course, they (and every ex-military "consultant" aired in recent days) persist in referring to Hezbollah's soldiers as "guerillas" and to the ongoing border war with Israel as a "guerilla action." Yet the events since early Israeli incursions at Bint Jabil appear to be a tooth-and-nail, set piece battle rather than a struggle against guerillas.

In fact, I admit to being impressed by the performance of Hezbollah on the battlefield, even considering that the IDF of 2006 is not the veteran force of the 1960s and 1970s (though they may have the opportunity to become battle-hardened over the next months). The question that bothers me is this: Why throw these troops away now?

There is absolutely no chance of Hezbollah accomplishing anything meaningful against Israel by itself. Negotiate for prisoner exchanges? They know better. Turn public opinion against Israel? Sorry, already there. Kill a few Israelis? Easier ways exist that are less punishing to Hezbollah itself. Disrupt Israel's economy by forcing activation of reserves and tossing (still fairly random) missiles at its cities? Do not bet on it. However, three possibilities behind the actions that initiated this new phase of the ongoing struggle do come to mind.

First, with its military mired in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel is about to face a massive attack from a Syrian Army backed by Iran. Having heard little about mobilization of forces for such an assault, perhaps I should forget about this one. Or perhaps the absence of odor simply means information is being sanitized.

Second, perhaps someone in _____ (fill in the blank with the country that you think is pulling Hezbollah's strings) has decided that Hezbollah is a threat down the road and has decided to expend it, similar to the manner in which Giap and Ho expended the Viet Cong in the Tet Offensive of 1968. I like this idea, as Syria would be the logical puppeteer -- a Syria concerned about its long term survival, and seeking to clean house before its own house gets cleaned. Of course, Iran has provided large stocks of missiles to Hezbollah, and I have noticed a decrease in the coverage of Iranian "nuke noise" in the popular media in favor of the fracas between Israel and Hezbollah....

Finally, Hezbollah's leadership may have lost control of local forces. Faced with a fait accompli by some local commander in seizing Israeli soldiers and dramatically surviving the immediate pursuit, the leadership took advantage of that success combined with Israeli distraction in Gaza, large missile stocks, and promises of support from Iran (and possibly Syria) for whatever purposes -- all bad. Of course, they probably figured that the United States would stop the IDF before it got out of hand (or rolled tanks through most of Lebanon). Bad guess so far, though Israel has just called a 48 hour hold on its air war (unless in direct response to missile attacks) due to heavy Lebanese civilian casulties today. The Israeli government has been careful to say that this suspension of air activity is not a ceasefire.

More tomorrow. -- W. Dudley (for M. Palmer)

Posted by Mike Palmer at 15:53 | Permalink | Comments   

I shall be absent for a week and in my stead my good friend and colleague Wade Dudley shall serve as “guest blogger.” I have no fear that while I’m gone the “GWOJ”—Global War on Jihadism”—is going to end. I suppose we might see a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Posted by Mike Palmer at 08:49 | Permalink | Comments