Wednesday, August 30, 2006

More Bad News for Iran

Back on 13 August I posted about the reported 50 percent increase in the Iranian debt during the past year, despite high oil prices. Today, 29 August, Asharq Alawsat carried an Agence France Press (AFP) report that Iran is falling behind its planned targets for oil production. According to National Iranian Oil Company Managing Director Gholam Hossein Nozari: “Crude oil production could reach 4.5 million bpd by the end of the state's fourth five-year development plan (2005-2010), well under the original production target of 5.0 million bpd said Tuesday. “ In fact, Iran cannot even meet its current OPEC production quota—5 million bpd—and is currently pumping about 4 million bpd. The short fall of a million bpd at current prices means the loss of $70 million per day, or annually almost $26 billion through 2010!

The reason? It’s simple: lack of capital and aging oil fields that need modernization. And how do the Iranians plan to solve their problem? They’re going to invite foreign investors. That’s right. The Islamic Republic of Iran, which castigates the Shah’s regime for selling the country out, and blames the US for overthrowing Muhammad Mossadegh because he nationalized Iran’s oil industry, is now going to turn to foreign investment. And, of course, despite the Iranian record of nationalization and its current policies, European and Chinese oil companies will be lined up to offer bids: unless, of course, Iran is hit with UNSC sanctions.

I’d make two points. First, Iran is far more vulnerable to economic sanctions than most people think. Second, Ahmadinejad’s spending on his international game—military support for Hezbollah, Lebanese reconstruction, bankrolling the rebuilding of the Syrian military, and a simultaneous and extensive expansion of the Iranian military—is hindering internal development and accelerating the accumulation of foreign debt. In the mid- and long-term, Iran would be much better off if it used its capital to increase oil production, and thereby revenue, instead of using those dollars, many of them borrowed, to re-arm Bashir Assad’s Syria.

Ahmadinejad is playing a high-stakes game, not only internationally, but also internally. He is living well beyond his means. As has been true of so many other leaders in the Middle East, the Shah among them, Ahmadinejad is short-changing internal development in order to hastily make his country a regional power. Time will tell if he is a better manager than was the Shah, or if Ahmadinejad is mortgaging Iran’s future.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Al-Hayat Editor Compares Nasrallah to Hitler and Stalin

Al-Hayat’s political editor, Hazem Saghieh, has a new opinion piece on line today. It’s written tongue-in-cheek, and I suspect has lost something in translation. So don’t give up half-way through. Here’s an extract; bolding mine.

Those insignificant corrupt people, who lose sleep over earthly possessions should clear the way for those who lose sleep solely over history.

Those who shed tears, like Fouad Siniora, should fade away, abandoning the scene for those who do not even bleed when cut.

But Hitler, Stalin, and Khomeni were infatuated by history. For them, property and material commodities were meaningless. Corruption never came near them and they never approached it. Doubt never arose, even in the minds of those who hated them, to accusations of corruption. Their only cause was existence itself, along with immortality, obviously. And for existence and immortality, they exercised an iron-fisted, organized, cohesive and dynamic leadership. They controlled their cliques and loyalists as one does with hand watches. They invoked a sense of reverence from their followers that ordinary politicians fail to do.

As for how much their leadership was worth: not tens of
thousands or even millions of dollars, but millions of
people.

There is no doubt that Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah are followers of this school of thought. Both enjoy a sort of solidness, cohesiveness, and dynamism that were not known to the history of political life in Lebanon.

However, Lebanon is not in need of all these qualities except to prolong endurance during wartime, and consequently, to do away with politics. In small amounts, these qualities could serve to clean political life, provide standards by which it is to be monitored, and add a degree of seriousness to it. In excess, these qualities not only kill politics, but life and freedom in a country that thrives on diversity, contraction, commerce, tourism and the knowledge of languages.


This is harsh talk, because Saghieh is comparing Nasrallah and Khomeini to Hitler and Stalin. I don’t know much about Saghieh, but he certainly has courage.

Ahmadinejad: Annan Undercuts Security Council

At his news conference today President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad discussed a variety of issues, including the current impasse over Iran’s nuclear program and the United Nations Security Council. He told his audience: “After the resolution was issued, the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called me and criticized such a hasty move.” If this is true, is there any wonder that the Iranians are not taking the UNSC’s demands seriously? Why should they when after the Security Council acts, the Secretary General calls and criticizes the move? And I have to wonder: in the wake of the passage of UNSC 1701, did Anan pick up the phone and undercut the Security Council again?

If Ahmadinejad is telling the truth, Annan has some answering to do. But, then again, this is the UN, right? So nothing will be said.

Monday, August 28, 2006

Chomsky's Second Asshole!

Noam Chomsky has a new book out--Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance. If you'd like to see someone rip Chomsky a new asshole, read Amir Taheri's review in Asharq Alawsat (English edition). A sample:

Chomsky ends up by shooting himself in the foot.

He shows that the US today enjoys less of an economic "dominance" in the world than it did in 1945. He also reminds us that even before the Second World War the US had been "by far the largest economic power anywhere in the world."

In 1945 the US accounted for almost 50 per cent of the global gross domestic product (GDP). By 1975 that share had fallen to 25 per cent. In 2000 it was down to 18 per cent, slightly lower than the European Union. Even in terms of foreign investment per head of the population the relative share of the US has declined. That figure for the Dutch is almost twice that of the US while Britain and Japan, Taiwan and South Koreas are also catching up.

All the new economic powers of the post-war world were helped by the US in the crucial phases of their economic take-off, and emerged as its trading partners: Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Southeast Asia, and today China. Even the current "economic miracle" in India is, to some measure, due to massive investments of American capital and technology.

But the biggest problem with Chomsky's book is that he offers no alternative to "evil" America. He vaguely speaks of "world public opinion", by which he means the peace-marchers and the Porto Allegre crowd, as "the second superpower", and says that a majority of mankind believe that US "dominance" is the main threat to the world. Even if that were the case, we have to note that it is not enough for something to be believed by large numbers of people, or, indeed by the entire humanity, for it to be true.

Muammar al-Qadhafi Unplugged

Muammar al-Qadhafi has always been enigmatic and unpredictable. I do not mean to suggest that he's finally seen the proverbial light. Perhaps he's primarily determined to hold onto power for himself and his son and fears the jihadists himself. But an article in Aljazeera for 28 August 2006 is not what you might expect from the Libyan leader. Here's a sample.

Al-Qadhafi, leader of one of the Arab world's most secular governments, has also criticised Islamic leaders. "These days there are a lot of a dubious speeches and propaganda ... which some naive people believe in ... but we can counter them with the Holy Koran and with science. "These speeches will soon be prominent in Ramadan ... When I switch on the TV and see a bearded man, and naive people calling him to ask for religious advice, I feel pity for him ... Now this is like Europe in the Middle Ages, selling indulgences."

Ahmadinejad’s Letter to Merkel

The Iranians today released the full text of President Ahmadinejad’s letter to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. I posted on this back on July 22. After reading the letter, I understand why Merkel didn’t bother to reply.

Ahmadinejad, after buttering up Merkel, informs her: “This is really an astonishing phenomenon in today's world. The propaganda machinery after World War II has been so colossal that has caused some people to believe that they are the guilty party by historical accounts and must pay the penalty fort [sic] the wrongs committed by their forefathers for successive generations and for indefinite period of time.” He’s talking about the Holocaust, obviously, since it is one of his favorite subjects. But I can’t help but wonder if he believes that Germany ought to get its eastern territories back?

And talk about internal logic. Everyone should forget the Holocaust, or whatever took place in Europe during the war, because it happened sixty years ago. But then Ahmadinejad launches into a diatribe about the creation of Israel . . . sixty years ago.

He also commits a mistake often made by Muslims in dialogue with Christians: Ahmadinejad praises “the teachings of the divine prophets, the teachings of Abraham, Moses and Jesus Christ (peace be upon him) and the Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him).” I know nothing about Merkel’s religious beliefs. She was an “Ossi” and a young communist, but now she heads the Christian Democratic Union. If she is a believing Christian, Ahmadinejad in his letter denied the principle belief underpinning Christianity—namely the divinity of Jesus Christ, relegating him to the lesser status of prophet.

In my opinion, this letter is even stranger than Ahmadinejad’s earlier treatise to George Bush. Why not spend his time trying to convince her that Germany’s proposed sale of more submarines to Israel could destabilize the region? (I do not mean to imply that I believe it would; quite the opposite.) How did he expect Merkel to respond? “Hey, Mahmoud, you’re right on! Let’s get those damned Jews?”

Here Comes the "POLG"

According to a MEMRI report, the Syrians have decided to take a leaf from the Hezbollah playbook and create a “Popular Organization for the Liberation of the Golan” (POLG). I guess that means that in a few months we’ll see Syrian “freedom fighters” shooting rockets and raiding into the Golan Heights. As a would-be Syrian jihadist told a reporter: “the sons of the occupied Golan, and the sons of proud Arab Syria, are continuing on their path, since the international community has abandoned them and turned its back on them. There is no other option left for us other than to adopt the Lebanese resistance as our model, as our patience has come to an end.”

Maybe this new group can do for Syria what Hezbollah did for Lebanon? I’m sure the Israelis would just love an excuse to bomb the living shit out of Assad’s infrastructure. I’m sorry, but this is so pathetically . . . derivative--new lenses in worn frames.

Informed Bullshit

Juan Cole is an intelligent man. He knows far more about Iran than do I. But the poor guy is so consumed by his hatred for the Bush administration that he is blinding himself to realities that stare him right in the face. You can be anti-Bush, anti-war in Iraq, without having to make excuses for thugs and butchers.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad gave a speech on Sunday in which he stated that Iran poses no threat to any nation, not even to Israel. Isn’t it true that last year Ahmadinejad threatened to “wipe Israel off the map”? Juan Cole says that it’s not. I’ve appended an extract of Cole’s comment. You can read the entire post yourself here. The bolding at the end is mine.

Ahmadinejad: We are Not a Threat to Any Country, Including Israel

Believe it, don't believe it, that's up to you. But at least we should know what exactly he said, which is not something our US newspapers will tell us about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speech on Saturday:Kayhan reports that [Pers.] Ahmadinejad said, "Iran is not a threat to any country, and is not in any way a people of intimidation and aggression." He described Iranians as people of peace and civilization. He said that Iran does not even pose a threat to Israel, and wants to deal with the problem there peacefully, through elections:"Weapons research is in no way part of Iran's program. Even with regard to the Zionist regime, our path to a solution is elections."Ahmadinejad seems to be explaining what his calls for the Zionist regime to be effaced actually mean. He says he doesn't want violence against Israel, despite its own acts of enmity against Middle Eastern neighbors. I interpret his statement on Saturday to be an endorsement of the one-state solution, in which a government would be elected that all Palestinians and all Israelis would jointly vote for. The result would be a government about half made up of Israeli ministers and half of Palestinian ones. Whatever one wanted to call such an arrangement, it wouldn't exactly be a "Zionist state," which would thus have been dissolved.The schlock Western pundits, journalists and politicians who keep maintaining that Ahmadinejad threatened "to wipe Israel off the map" when he never said those words will never, ever manage to choke out the words Ahmadinejad spoke on Saturday, much less repeat them as a tag line forever after….

It is true that what Ahmadinejad said in Farsi does not translate literally as “wipe Israel off the map.” But Cole’s argument that “schlock western pundits, journalists and politicians” are the source of this misunderstanding is . . . informed bullshit.

For example, here’s how Aljazeera reported the story back on 26 October 2005. Headline: "Ahmadinejad: Wipe Israel off Map." And the quote: “‘As the Imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map,’ said Ahmadinejad, referring to Iran's revolutionary leader Ayat Allah [sic] Khomeini.”

And what was it that Imam Khomeini had to say about Israel? Well, according to a short hagiographic piece on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting website (the bolding in the quote is in the original): “[Khomeini] was also aware of the danger posed by the illegal Zionist entity called Israel to the Muslim world. He called the Zionist entity ‘a cancerous tumour that should be uprooted from the Middle East.’ He said if the world’s billion-plus Muslims were to unite and pour a bucket of water each, Israel would be drowned. He ruled out any compromise with the Zionists and said only Islam will make the oppressed Palestinian people triumph over Israel.” Hey, he didn’t use the world “wipe.”

You can also find a synopsis of the October 2005 speech by Ahmadinejad at the official website of the Iranian presidency. Here’s the quote from that source: "The president called on the public and the Palestinian combatant groups to be vigilant and added that if they manage to overcome the new conspiracies of the world arrogant powers, the way would be paved for destruction of the Zionist regime and establishment of a national Palestinian government."

Okay, they’re not using the word “wipe.” If you were an Israeli, would you read “destruction” in lieu of “wipe” and feel safer? But I suppose “regime” is, after all, better than “cancerous tumour.”

Does anyone want to make a guess about where the “wipe” part of the wipe Israel from the map line probably originated? Unfortunately, the link has gone dead (how convenient), but I saved the cache. And what is the source? Would you believe the website of the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), dated 26 October 2005? Here’s the key quotation: "He [Ahmadinejad] further expressed his firm belief that the new wave of confrontations generated in Palestine and the growing turmoil in the Islamic world would in no time wipe Israel away."

Let’s get real, and accurate. It was never just the “schlock Western pundits, journalists and politicians" who spread the “wipe” story, unless you consider Aljazeera, IRNA, and Ahmadinejad’s own website “western.” Nor was the less than literal translation of Ahmadinejad’s remarks of 26 October 2005 a conspiracy hatched by Neocons, dastardly Jews, or the ignorant. It was IRNA that saddled Ahmadinejad with a threat to “wipe Israel away,” and the fact that they didn’t use the word “map” does not change the meaning of the threat. And even if Ahmadinejad had said nothing on 26 October 2005, the fact that Iran for over a quarter-century has continued to refer to the “Zionist entity” is evidence enough that Iran officially wants to see the Israeli state disappear.

I agree with Noam Chomsky that Americans ought to be able to oppose the Bush administration’s handling of the war without their patriotism being called into question, or being labeled “un-American.” But those who do oppose the administration need to remind themselves that just because Bush said it’s so, doesn’t mean that it’s not; or just because Bush has labeled Iran part of the “axis of evil,” doesn’t mean that Iran’s current leadership is not a threat to the world, or to Israel. When scholars lose the ability to make such judgments they risk becoming “useful idiots,” and when they reach that stage, no one listens to them and their breadth of knowledge is lost to the process.

Sunday, August 27, 2006

Nasrallah: Hezbollah Will Not Disarm

The official Hezbollah website, now up and running on an Iranian instead of an American server, carries a story today that states quite clearly that Hezbollah has no intention of disarming as the result of UNSC 1701. So what will the UN do in response? What will the western media say about this?

Can you imagine if Israeli PM Olmert publicly stated that Israel had no intention of honoring the UNSC resolution? My God! The outcry and the damnation! But in this case everyone will avert their eyes and lumber forward, hoping like fools that it will somehow all work out in the end.

Let's face facts: if the international community cannot stand up to Hezbollah, can anyone actually think that UN or any other international body is going to stand up to Iran or North Korea?

The abyss beckons!

Shelby Steele: A Keeper

Shelby Steele had a powerful and thoughtful opinion piece in today's Wall Street Journal. The title was--"Life and Death: Western guilt blinds us to the nature of Islamic extremism." It is worth reading and saving.

“There is no compulsion in religion”

So states the Qur’an 2:256. Despite the fact that innumerable Muslims keep telling us that conversions to Islam never come, or came, at gun or sword point, the kidnappers of the two Fox newspersons apparently are a bit confused about this particular verse. News reports indicate that before the kidnappers of Steve “Khaled” Centanni and Olaf Wiig released their prisoners, they made them record a video in which they denounced the United States and swore their allegiance to Islam. Admittedly, they were given other choices—paying the jizya or facing a jihad—but in my book this was a coerced conversion.

This incident is probably over, although it shouldn’t be. I hope that CAIR posts a piece condemning this coerced conversion as un-Islamic. I hope that the authorities in Gaza prosecute the kidnappers. And I hope that if Centanni and Wiig repudiate their “conversions,” they are not targeted for death as apostates.

Edited at 2010 eastern: You can watch the video here at Charles Johnson's Little Green Footballs web blog. We need to wake up and understand that the jihadists, if they had the power, would place comparable pressure on every non-Muslim in the world. Note that Steve "Khalid" Centanni affirms that Islam is meant not just for some people, but for all people at all times. Changing American policy in the Middle East will not alter that fact!